Independence Day again for Malaysia

In the political consciousness of Malaysians in the peninsula, Merdeka always falls on Aug 31. For Sabahans and Sarawakians, Malaysia achieved independence on Sept 16.

The story of Malaysia began with a schism, by a fluke of history. I remember the early history of Malaysia well, for I lived through it. It was a time of great confusion. Malaya and Singapore objected to the inclusion of Sabah and Sarawak into the new nation state of Malaysia.

The declaration of independence of Sabah and Sarawak was delayed for more than two weeks to allow time for the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission to complete its work by Sept 16, 1963. That was how we came to have two separate 'Merdeka'.

I remember the night of Sept 16, 1963 well. The fledgling nation was struggling under a declaration of emergency as we were still facing an armed communist insurgency, in addition to the Konfrontasi with the Indonesians and the territorial claims of the Philippines over Sabah.

On that fateful day, 47 years ago, I, together with a group of boys from my neighbourhood, trooped down to the waterfront in Kuching near midnight.

The streets were quiet. We proceeded to the clock tower at the waterfront and waited listlessly. Eventually, the new Malaysian flag was raised at the colonial fort by the river for the first time in history.

We could hear the new anthem playing over the radio as Steven Kalong Ningkan, the first chief minister of Sarawak, witnessed the ceremony and declared Sarawak independent from the British. Then we walked home among the stray dogs on the deserted streets.

And now, as if we have been living in a dream, 47 years have passed and the nationhood of Malaysian is no longer in doubt as in those early days.

In the last half century, much has changed in our beloved country. We have evolved from a country that depended on its natural resources to a progressive economy and one of the leading exporting nations in Southeast Asia.

Sabah, Sarawak become kingmakers

But a radical change has happened among Malaysians. Our nation is now poised to be transformed by a new system of government. The powerful BN has lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament and has been rocked by a shocking defeat at the hands of PKR-PAS-DAP in five states in the peninsula.

Overnight, the previously insignificant states of Sabah and Sarawak have emerged to be the kingmakers in Malaysia. If they decide to swing and throw their support behind Pakatan Rakyat, then national power will fall into the hands of the opposition.

The million-dollar question in Malaysian politics today is this: who will the BN component parties in Sabah and Sarawak back in future rounds of general elections? In Sarawak at least, part of the support for BN has been lost to the opposition DAP. The tight grip of the BN strongman, Abdul Taib Mahmud, seems to be loosening.

There are those in the smaller Sarawak BN component parties who proclaim Taib to be their biggest liability after 29 years of nearly absolute power. The greatest weakness of Taib Mahmud's reign is his age. He is now 74 and his shaky health has raised a question of how long he can maintain his grip on power in the state.

Taib's magical hold on power has always been thanks to divide-and-rule tactics among his underlings. At this moment, nobody is strong enough to take over his leadership. No credible successor is anywhere in sight.

The question is then: what would happen if he dies in office or is forced to retire, due to ill-health (though I personally wish him long life)? The political balance in Sarawak would then hang by a thread.

The post-Taib era

Let us speculate about a post-Taib era. The Pakatan parties in Sarawak are still fractured, and it does not look like they are going to take power too soon. Given the difficulties in communication and transportation within 'Bumi Kenyalang', the prospect of the people voting for the opposition in large numbers is limited.

The scourge of Sarawak politics is still money politics. The vote is more often than not regarded as an exchange for material gains between the voters and their candidates. Vote buying is still commonly and blatantly practised in constituencies in the rural areas.

So in the post-Taib era, the most important political change will be determined by how the different groups of the ruling elite align with the various factions of the PBB jostling for power. Many unique ethnic questions then become relevant.

Will the Melanau Muslim group continue to have a strongman to dominate Sarawak politics? Will the Malay PBB faction rise and rebel against the Melanau Muslim faction by forging a new alliance with other BN groups? In whose direction will the Dayak faction in BN lean in any new political hierarchy?

In the post-Taib era, the new phase will see plenty of fierce internal struggle within the ruling Sarawakian elite. And how will Umno react to this changing of the guard at the highest level in Sarawak BN?

In short, Sarawakians will have a chance to play the role of a national kingmaker in the face of so many contradictions among the ruling elite. In the immediate post-Taib era, the political situation and the balance of power will become very fluid, and anything is possible. Sarawak could very well be placed on the cusp of change, with the possibility of major reshuffles among the political elite.

I really cannot foresee the direction of change. But at this critical juncture, any change is better than no change – and change is the iron law of history in human affairs.

SIM KWANG YANG was member of parliament for Bandar Kuching, Sarawak from 1982 to 1995. He can be reached at sky8hornbill@gmail.com. All comments are welcomed.
Malaysiakini