Pakatan not a credible threat to BN

Pakatan won’t be a credible threat to BN

FMT Staff | January 6, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR: While Malaysia’s political stability would come under “moderate attack” during the next five years, Pakatan Rakyat, the country’s main opposition pact, “will not be able to offer a sufficiently credible, stable alternative” to the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN), the Economist Intelligence Unit report, said.

The international organisation also predicted that the ruling BN coalition, controlled by its largest component party, Umno, would face greater challenge to its grip on power.

“The March 2008 general election revealed that Umno could no longer count on the strong support of the majority of Malays. However, the main opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance will not be able to offer a sufficiently credible, stable alternative to the BN.

“Political intrigues within Umno itself therefore constitute the biggest threat to political stability in Malaysia,” the Economist report revealed.

It further added that since the March 2008 general election, the ability to make or break the BN has been in the hands of political parties from Sabah and Sarawak as BN legislators from these two states account for 52 seats, making up over one-third of BN’s 137 Members of Parliament.

The BN’s Borneo power base, the report said, was likely to be severely tested at the Sarawak state election, which must be held by July 2011.

“Unresolved issues, such as illegal foreign immigration to Sabah, may cause the BN parties based in Borneo, or individual MPs from the island, to defect to the opposition or use the threat to do so to secure greater influence within the coalition in the run-up to the next general election.

“Moreover, the Borneo-based parties will become even more influential if MPs from the island retain their seats at the next election and a substantial number of BN legislators based in peninsular Malaysia lose theirs,” added the report.

Rural heartland

The report said although voters in the rural heartland of peninsular Malaysia continued their support for Umno, a significant number of better-educated, liberal middle-class Malays have deserted the ruling party in favour of the opposition.

This shift in support away from Umno, the report noted, could be further encouraged by the greater availability of uncensored information on Internet news sites and blogs.

The Economist report said Umno’s internal leadership elections, which had been postponed to 2012, could be a source of instability, particularly if the party fails to secure a resounding victory in the snap general election that may well be called in 2011.

“Under such circumstances there would be even greater resistance to economic reforms, undermining the credibility of the Prime Minister, Najib Tun Razak, and potentially placing his position as president of Umno – and hence his role as head of government –at risk. The most likely contender to become Umno’s next leader is Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin,” the report said.

It also predicted Opposition Leader, Anwar Ibrahim, would likely be convicted on a charge of sodomy in the coming months although Anwar claimed that the case against him was politically motivated.

“Without him, the ties that unite the disparate parties making up the Pakatan – the reformist, multicultural PKR, the conservative PAS and the left-of-centre, predominantly ethnic-Chinese DAP – are likely to fray, while the process of choosing a new Pakatan spokesman could deepen divisions within Anwar’s PKR party and also between the opposition coalition’s members.

“Yet the likely sentencing of Anwar to a prison term could also facilitate a realignment of the opposition and elements of the BN, thus offering an alternative to the current political groupings,” the report added.

The Economist Intelligence Unit also believes that the country’s general election would be held sooner than the end of the current five-year term in April 2013.

“Traditionally, the BN has preferred to call elections about a year before the end of its term of office, and this makes early 2012 a possible date for the next election. However, developments in recent months, such as the postponement of internal Umno elections, suggest that BN may consider holding a snap poll in 2011.

“We still believe that Najib will set a general election date after the Sarawak state election, which must be held by July 2011 and is the main event on the political calendar before the next national poll,” the report said.

Reform plans

It said the Sarawak election will provide a good indication of the level of public support for the government and its reform plans.

It said speculation had intensified that the Prime Minister and BN head would call for a general election in the first half of this year, nearly 48 months ahead of schedule.

“This view is based in part on the likelihood that the confidence of the ruling BN had been boosted by victories in two recent by-elections, one in peninsular Malaysia and the other in Sabah, which may have marked a turning point in terms of voter support for the governing coalition.

“Adding further fuel to the rumours about an imminent election, at the end of November the BN’s largest component party, Umno, announced that it was postponing its branch, divisional and central leadership elections by 18 months,” it said.

However, the report mentioned that Najib has denied he was planning an early parliamentary poll, but twice in the past when Umno has postponed its supreme council elections a general election has then been held within a year. Recent speculation has focused on a possible election in March or April.

The Economist Intelligence report noted that having witnessed splits that had arisen in the main opposition PKR as a result of its internal elections in November, Umno is probably keen to avoid any kind of internal party contest that could harm its public profile.

Another possible reason behind Umno’s decision to postpone internal elections was the party’s desire to minimise the risk of defections to the opposition – an option that is likely to be considered by disappointed candidates for Umno party posts, the report added.

Since the March 2008 general election, Anwar, the de facto leader of Pakatan alliance, has attempted to increase the Pakatan’s representation in Parliament by encouraging BN lawmakers to defect. But this has not worked so far.

FMT